The core framework of this book: the root cause of Japanese business problems lies in the thinking habit of "executing without hypothesis verification."
Assumptions Are Not Conclusions
Ohmae Kenichi points out: most people confuse "hypothesis" and "conclusion." When they see a problem, they immediately generate an intuitive judgment, then spend all their energy collecting evidence that "supports" this judgment — rather than "verifying" it.
Collecting evidence to support a conclusion you've already reached is called confirmation bias, not analysis.
My Three Practices
- Hypothesize before output: Before outputting any analysis, write down "what is my hypothesis" in one sentence
- Reverse listing: After writing each conclusion, force yourself to write "three arguments supporting the opposite conclusion"
- Time delay: Don't output important judgments immediately; place them for 6 hours then review